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If Apple decides to get out of the Mac building market, I hope that will at least license out the Mac OS to other hardware companies

Mar 11, 10 - 11:32 am Comment from: silverhawk

How about that; the author used FUD in his article.

Well, they can keep developing and "milking" it for what, 50 years?

Cross-develop both in a coordinated way?

Who is this guy who thinks in such a limited way?

Mar 11, 10 - 11:36 am Comment from: zmarc

What he's talking about is decades away. And just because iPad and other devices end up generating the lion's share if Apple's revenue doesn't mean the Mac's going away. Why should it? There will always be people who need more control and options than a more restrictive platform can provide. There's plenty of room in the marketplace for both.

Final Cut Pro, 3D imaging software, scientific apps all require desktop machines with horsepower. Why do these guys just pull stuff out of their ass?

The iPad could easily surpass the Mac in terms of revenue and unit sales, especially if Apple figures out how to sell people iPads without needing a PC to sync into!
The vast majority of people don't even need the power and flexibility (re: complexity) of a Mac mini, much less an iMac or a Mac Pro tower. Sure, there will always be power users who need that power for video, audio, website design, app creation, etc. but most people don't do that stuff beyond watching a movie or posting a iPhone movie of their kids on Facebook.

Reading the quote from Steve Jobs one could easily assume the next big thing was and IS Mac OS X.

Mar 11, 10 - 11:40 am Comment from: cptnkirk

He totally doesn't get the iPad. The iPad will no more eliminate the 'real' computer than automatic transmission eliminated the gearshift. Yes, most people buy automatic transmission cars but those who have need or want more can still buy standard cars. In fact, outside of North America, standard is still the way to go.

Yeah, I'm going to Photoshop on an iPad with my finger. I don't think so.

Mar 11, 10 - 11:43 am Comment from: justme2

Until Apple develops a way to update the iPhone OS through the "cloud" (namely wirelessly), you'll still need a desktop or laptop system to plug into. And most people are going to still want a computer system to run programs that won't run on the iPad: photo/video editing, major financial management, and the like. Plus the need for external storage for media you cycle on/off the iPad (if you're traveling with the kids, UP for them; if you travel alone, Inglourious Basterds for you).

I see the iPad less as a substitute and more of a supplement...something to use when I don't want to drag along my MacBook when I just have a few minor needs.

That quote: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth — and get busy on the next great thing" is very significant. So are these:

"I skate to where the puck is going, not to where it's been." --Jobs channelling Gretzsky, and:

"The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
--Said in the same breath as what MDN quoted, it means that the ubiquitous PC defined by a desktop OS, using a mouse and physical keyboard is really seen by Apple as a place where the puck has been.

Think about these 3 quotes any time anyone suggests Apple should buy Adobe or a media company or set up a virtual mobile phone network or make TVs anything else that is so yesterday .

I've heard logical thinking is a useful skill. It comes in handy so I'm told...

I trust that touch-tech will indeed migrate up the product line.

After using an iPhone, I find myself stroking almost everything around and being mildly surprised if it doesn't respond.

Mind you, I don't have that problem with the girlfriend, who seems quite pleased by this new me

Mar 11, 10 - 11:45 am Comment from: Apelock

Um, don't you need a computer, perhaps a Mac, to sync with the iPad?

Mar 11, 10 - 11:48 am Comment from: Predrag

Actually, he concealed it by spelling it out.

Actually, the article makes perfect sense and is exactly in line with the MDN's Jobs quote (of which the author of the article is likely oblivious).

Mac isn't dead and isn't dying just yet. However, there is no doubt that OS X can only continue to live so long. Whether it will be three, five , seven or ten more years, we can't tell now. But it would be misguided to expect that people will be still running desktop applications on a desktop computer using some newer incarnation of Mac OS X. Remember, this isn't Microsoft. Apple had never cared about the ability to run legacy code (think about all the cold-turkey transitions, from 68k to PPC chips; from System 9 to OS X; from PPC to Intel; from 32bit to 64bit...). Where MS continues to support applications that were written while Reagan was still the US President, Apple turns on a dime and moves ahead.

The new iPhone OS (likely to be renamed Apple Mobile OS, or something similar) has all the necessary underpinning of a robust OS. If the mobile iWork demonstrates the efficiency of a desktop-type application on a touch-based mobile device, Apple will be in a position to get tens of millions of people to learn and get thoroughly comfortable with the new (multi)touch UI paradigm before they migrate it to a full desktop. It will be just the way they did it with the iPhone -> iPad move (millions of people already know how to use iPad, even though nobody has seen one yet). By the time of iPad's first birthday, we should already have plenty of third-party desktop-type applications on the iPad. Once users are familiar with navigating the UI and using desktop-class apps on a mobile device, Apple will deliver a large-screen, powerful desktop device with the same OS. With their own powerful software packages (FCP studio, Logic studio, Aperture), other developers would quickly see the road map. This should bring Adobe on board, and with Adobe, everyone else will follow.

I can easily see this as a way to "the next big thing". Meanwhile, they may as well "milk the Macintosh for all its worth"...

Yes. Apple is going to do away with their Mac production just because this moron says it shall be so. Apple is selling more Macs than ever. I highly doubt that Apple is going to cut its own jugular.

Don't you know that you need a Mac to develop iPhone and iPad Apps?

"Yeah, I'm going to Photoshop on an iPad with my finger. I don't think so"

Try to think beyond the here and now. Charles H. Duell (Commissioner, U.S. patent office, 1899) never really said "Everything that can be invented has been invented." but those who say the iPad can't replace a desktop machine are limiting their thinking.

The iPad will evolve. It'll get more powerful year after year until ultimately, yes, it will render and shade 3D models in realtime.

Developers (not just Apple) will figure out ways to do Photoshoplike things on the iPad in ways we can't even imagine.

Once it can bluetooth with 30 inch screens and other peripherals as well as it's own keyboard, it will offer a true alternative. Only consumer demand will decide whether it totally replaces desktops.

My upgrade path has changed with the iPad

I was planning on a MacBook Pro, with a MDP moniter, (when it was upgraded to the 27" formatt). Now I plan on a 27" iMac with an iPad for travel.

I think rhe iPad may hurt the Macbook line and help the iMac

If Apple does not kill the Mac, their competition will, eventually.

Rule of surviving.

The Mac already "kills" the PC. If the iPad can kill the Mac then what will the iPad do to the PC and the rest? This is evolution and something has to kill the obsolete.

The future is'nt going to arrive until we let go of the past.

Steve Jobs is just brilliant. Unbelieveably brilliant.

Mar 11, 10 - 12:01 pm Comment from: MidWest Mac

No, no, no.

The Mac isn't going anywhere. I'm in publishing, and I can tell you that I will go apeshit if I'm one day forced to design content with Windows and then disperse it with an iPad.

Both have their strong suits and limitations. How about looking at it as Jobs presented it: phone/touch ----- iPad ------ Notebooks/desktops

Each with their own reason for existing.

Mar 11, 10 - 12:01 pm Comment from: ecrabb

The premise of that article is beyond moronic.

Most people will still need a full/open computer. Printing, peripherals, complicated software that requires a mouse, video, photography, design... The list of tasks that won't be conducive to a tablet is endless. Might as well be an OS X machine to do those tasks.

This isn't taking focus away from Macs, OS X, or "open" computers... This is just going to give people an option they never had before. Different tools for different jobs instead of always being forced to use the same tool, regardless of task.

Oh, and the author REALLY needs to read this article:
http://speirs.org/blog/2010/1/29/future-shock.html

Mar 11, 10 - 12:04 pm Comment from: Predrag

See, this is the reason why none of US are running Apple, and Steve Jobs is. Everyone here is still thinking about yesterday or today.

The iPad hasn't even come out yet. The first version of it. And even the first version already promises to deliver incredible computing quality to consumers. It is also obvious that many "vertical" markets are already salivating over the device (medical, construction, real estate...).

You can rest assured, by the first anniversary, there will be thousands of desktop-class apps for the iPad (including databases, image, video, audio, text manipulation and editing, and anything a regular laptop can do).

Let's not forget; iBook G4 had the same screen resolution as the iPad and much slower CPU, graphic chip and disk space. Yet it could run Final Cut Pro 4 (which supported HD), as well as Adobe CS (InDesign, Photoshop, Illustrator...). So, hardware muscle is NOT the issue. Developers will quickly figure this out. Just watch.

never gonna happen…

Riiiiight. Apple sells millions of Mac per year at a high margin. Certainly they'll kill that off right away/

Mar 11, 10 - 12:12 pm Comment from: qka

FeeCee magazine - full of crap again.

@cptnkirk

...except that the automatic transmission has pretty much wiped out the manual transmission, and with the advent of hybrid cars, manuals are not long for this world, sadly.

The moment I saw the iPad, my first thought was "that thing would be a fine primary computer for 90% of the population." It has a nice screen, is portable, does email and web browsing, can stream movies, play music, do light document editing, etc. For most of the computer-consuming public, that's perfect. Who the hell really wants to know where to install an application, or navigate a file directory? nobody, that's who.

I can see, in the next 10 years, OS X becoming a professional's tool, and the iPad line becoming the consumer's tool. It might make me a little sad, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

Consider the "Cloud"

Developers will still need Macs to create iPad applications. I think it is realistic for non-tech users to switch to devices like the iPad for general computing tasks like web browsing and word processing (with the optional keyboard). However, business and development users will still need a full fledged OS.

Mar 11, 10 - 12:21 pm Comment from: Predrag

"Developers will still need Macs to create iPad applications."

How else would you create one? On an iPad? How do you get one when it STILL ISN'T AVAILABLE???!!!

Everybody here is talking about TODAY. The article is talking about next year, next five years and next ten years.

Mac OS X is going away. It will be replaced by the OS currently known as iPhone OS. Its user interface will be touch-based. It will eventually provide for attaching peripherals (I wouldn't be surprised if Apple develops a docking adapter for ordinary USB desktop printers, or an OS update for WiFi printing).

Folks, you seem to be permanently stuck in your thinking!

Mar 11, 10 - 12:25 pm Comment from: jeffreyk

@KeepHopeAlive

Agreed.

Yea, Steve did "milk the Macintosh for all it's worth" (with updates)

He then replace (years later) the Mac with OSX.
The iPhone and iPad are just extentions of OSX.

Right, Pedrag, example, patent pending for "tiered touch" (can't say more), think FatBits;
Photoshop on future iPad.

Think Tomorrow!!!

(Jet Packs are so 1950s)

Mar 11, 10 - 12:31 pm Comment from: Burrell

""Segan writes. "The MacBook and Mac Mini lines will succumb first, as they are lower-cost and appeal mostly to consumers. Mac Pros will last the longest, as professionals tend to require a wide range of peculiar hardware and accessories.""

Segan talks as if the iPad will supplant other devices, when my acquaintances see it as another accessory to speed things up in the house or on the road. No one I know will give up their MBPro or Mac Pros or Mac Minis.

It will be Apple's competitors who are hit, as they already are.

As I recall it, Apple owns the $1000+ laptop market with a 90% share in the U.S. HP, Dell, Toshiba are also-rans a gasp away from death.

Segan is wrong. The iPhone OS IS the Mac OS. It has been designed to be adaptable from a small iPod to a fast server, because…it was & is UNIX, probably one of the finest OSs in the world and amongst the longest lived.

They miss the idea. A touch interface is nice for small mobil devices where you most of the time receive information and MacOS with mouse and keyboard interface is better for large displays where you create information. Together they will built a nice ecosystem and Mac marketshare will grow in the wake of ipad/iphone success even if the absolute sales numbers are much smaller.

The iPad is a threat to some portion of all laptop sales, regardless of Windows or OSX since it syncs via iTunes.

However, there is a large portion of both the laptop and desktop market that the iPad cannot replace (at least for the next few years, with regard to the laptop).

No... iPad still needs to sync to a Mac or PC... So you always need two devices. basic iPad $600, Mac mini $600.... total investment $1200 for basic iPad.

I WAS going to buy a new MBP, no longer. I am buying an iMac and an iPad as another poster is doing. My son is going to do the same thing. Our sales group at work is holding off purchasing MacBooks or PCs until the iPad can be evaluated. There is no doubt that MacBook sales are eventually going to slump.

Calm down, the future will be great - there will be content creating apple machines and content consuming apple machines; I don't think we have to fear the future - I still run sometimes OS9 on my old g4cube, and it's terrible compared to os x... Back then I hated os x, the new finder etc. And now I am loving it. Time is going forward. Sometimes I bring my really old machines from the garage, nostalgy... But I am looking forward for OS 11 or what it's name will be...

Mar 11, 10 - 01:13 pm Comment from: Rainer

Only Apple has the balls to kill their own products with newer, better products.
That's why they are still successful.
IBM or Microsoft would have created an iPhone without iPod (so it doesn't cannibalize iPod sales), or some sort of "plug" where you can plug an iPod nano into an iPhone...
That's why Apple leads and all others just follow.
Also, see that recent article where an ex-MSFT-manager recounts how competing division-managers at MSFT killed the MS-tablet by a mixture of mischief, incompetence and turf-wars.
That's the reason why MSFT can't come up with anything else but Windows and Office: it's too successful and a sacred cow that nobody can touch.

Well, if Apple was to dump the Mac from its product line, I would jump ship in a heartbeat. I also do not want to be tethered to a limited (and somewhat) mobile device.

I'll flee to Linux, Amiga or even Haiku in a flash!

""If that market explodes and Apple takes its focus away from the Mac"
It didn't happen with the ipod, didn't happen with the iPhone and won't happen with the iPad, it's just that simple.

It's more probable PCs are the losers in the battle, not the Mac.

the iPad at this point is an extension of the laptop/desktop computer, and not a replacement for heavy users, but is a replacement for casual computer users who much more heavily skew to PC and shop on pricepoint.

Someday the iPhone, not the iPad, will kill the mac when a mac pro fits in the iPod form factor or smaller. The closed computing paradigm (aka Kiosk Mode / aka simple finder) won't necessarily follow the form factor, like the author of the article is suggesting. In iPhone OS4 I predict we will see a few new features that blur the line.

In the office I work at there are a bunch of Windows
users that are waiting for Arrandale i-7 based MacBooks
to replace their Windows laptops with MacBook Pros
with Parallels and Fusion to run their enterprise apps
because they are fed up with their current Windows
laptops. They are all waiting to buy iPads too. For
them it's not MacBooks or iPads. It's Sony, Dell or MacBooks
AND iPads (not OR iPads). I already use a MacBook Pro but
the day the Arrandale books come out I will be running to my
local Apple store to buy myself a new MacBook Pro AND an
iPad, AND a new iPhone as soon as the new iPhones come
out in the next few months. Everyone I know is waiting to
get new iPhones, new iPads, and new MacBooks as soon
as Apple is ready to sell them to us.
"iPads killing Macs"? Not in the universe I inhabit.
We may see Dell suffer. Palm suffer. Even Sony.
But Apple? I don't think so. My wallet doesn't think so either.

The iPod, iPhone and iPad are "Post-PC devices". There will always be room for laptops and desktops, but not everyone needs one. The point is similar to the iPod mini being cannibalized by the nano. Apple will benefit, because the next devices will sell far more than the ones they are replacing.

Mar 11, 10 - 02:00 pm Comment from: thethirdshoe

The desktop systems are not going away.
The iPad is for the mobile segment.
I would not want my only possible desktop device to be an iPad setting in the keyboard dock. It is just not big enough. I want a big screen on the desk.

Now maybe if you had your very powerful 3rd or 4th generation iPad, that could handle really demanding tasks, and a large monitor on your desk that you could just slide the iPad into from the side...

I wonder if anybody has a patent on that idea?

Mar 11, 10 - 02:09 pm Comment from: thethirdshoe

All you would need for the connection is Light Peak.

He completely contradicted his own argument. How can the iPad and its successors replace the Mac by simply being a closed platform? To replace it it would have to open up to offer similar functionality across the board. If he were simply saying that this type of device would be the focus in its place then I presume he wouldn't go on about it finally replacing the pro machines for they would simply become irrelevant to the company as a product and wouldn't transform at all.

He is correct however in saying that the aim is to replace the Mac OS but this would be a long term strategy and would gradually open more as it did so, certainly as it entered the professional sphere. It would have to, to succeed in doing what is its aim, that is create a whole new computing paradigm and create a dominant future market which Apple can actually win in numbers as well as profitability. That said it will only open up as, where, and when it is required to do so to enter the serious Mac marketplace. Until then the Mac will be protected and the closed nature of the iPhone OS is by its nature helping do just that in the shorter term.

Mar 11, 10 - 02:11 pm Comment from: Islandgirl

Once it can bluetooth with 30 inch screens and other peripherals as well as it's own keyboard, it will offer a true alternative. Only consumer demand will decide whether it totally replaces desktops.

Wouldn't it be the same thing as a desktop then? I see the iPad as a mobile entertainment, casual use and maybe some light word processing device. Seems to me it will compete with netbooks, or perhaps the small, thin & light laptops.

Copypock! Sheer copypock!