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It is very probably that the 600 M mark was met as long ago as this time last month. If it were met today, 10/25, as the announcement was made, it would be exactly 100 days since their last 1/2 B announcement, leading to a meger-for-Apple 100,000 songs per day. When the 500 M mark was reached 100 days ago today, the rate was 170,000 songs per day (also during heave promotion and iPod giveaway).

As a totally wild ass guess, I predict another 5 months, pegging the 1 Billionth song sold right around the end of March.

MDN word: trouble

I say late January or early February. Holiday sales of iPods will help fuel iTunes sales.

the billionth download will happen in late january

1 billion on February 12th.

That's right you read it here from the dancer first!

1 billion songs milestone on January 8, 2006. That is all for now.

Jo Jo, Go Johnny Jo Jo Jo!

MDN you forgot about itunes japan!

and in Japan, even.

Ironically I just now got done watching a video from 2004 of the UK, France and Germany iTMS launch. Pretty good presentation, that. Very rewarding in retrospective 85 million tracks at that point.

If this many songs are bought legally everyday, the recording industry needs to realize how much they're losing everyday to illegal downloads.

With the Christmas iTunes gift cards, gifting music via iTMS and iPod sales w/ immediate must buy a song or two syndrome - I predict 1 billion no later than Jan 11th.

Back on 18/07 - the 500 million milestone - Apple was shifting tracks at around 1.525 million/day.

Then, following the launch of iTMS Japan, there was the announcement that Apple had sold 1 million tracks in four days, implying that Apple was now moving 1.75 million tracks/day.

A recent article quoted an Apple VP - I think it was Cue - as saying that downloads were now running at 1.85 million downloads/day.

All of these random bits of intelligence indicate that Apple has now taken to sandbagging its numbers: Apple should have reached well above 650 million tracks by now (in fact, my estimates are that they are currently around the 678 million mark about now).

The release of iTMS Australia and the holiday quarter - with the new gift functionality - should see these figures rise to around two million tracks/day in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving.

As a result, Apple should achieve the 750 million mark in the first week of December, and go on to achieve the 1 billion tracks milestone in early April.

"MDN word: trouble"

No offense to those who use this stuff, but WHY are you putting it in your posts? It adds no value, is not funny and, worst of all, it makes no sense. "trouble"? How does that relate to the article you're commenting on.

Maybe I just don't understand, but it just seems like it's supposed to be humorous, but it really falls flat. Like a punchline but no joke to preclude it.

Yes, I'm fraying a bit at the edges as the end of the day approaches, but this really does annoy me for some reason.

They'll probably announce the 750M mark.

"As a result, Apple should achieve the 750 million mark in the first week of December, and go on to achieve the 1 billion tracks milestone in early April."

If they reach 1 billion in April, that would be quite a nice birthday announcement from Apple.

I recently spent a week with my sister in Albuquerque and helped them install iTunes and an Airport Express to stream music to their home stereo.

They had many CDs, and set about importing everything onto a hard drive. In spite of this existing library, and several extensive discussions we've had about stealing music, my niece and nephew, and many, many students in both the high schools and junior highs in that city appear to be using the Limewire peer-to-peer file sharing system to illegally download commercial mp3 songs as well as those in the public domain. The kids burn CDs for one another without hesitation. Even one of their teenage friends who is the daughter of a local copyright attorney was using Limewire!

I had to explain peer-to-peer file sharing networks to this attorney, and break the news that her daughter (and my nephew and niece) were stealing commercial songs. Everytime my brother-in-law made them uninstall Limewire, they just waited a week and then surreptiously re-installed it after things died down. Free music is just irresistable to most average kids and they just don't care if it is stealing.

The interesting thing was this: iTunes recognized and played Limewire Playlists.

Re: Magic Words...

icantstandit wrote:

"No offense to those who use this stuff, but WHY are you putting it in your posts? It adds no value, is not funny and, worst of all, it makes no sense."

it's a MDN thang. if we have to explain it....

MW: "nature"

"Apples are found in nature. Microsofts are found.... ?!"

"Maybe I just don't understand, but it just seems like it's supposed to be humorous, but it really falls flat."

Yes, you don't understand.

MDW = "cases", as in head cases?

Refresh my math please. Is a billion a thousand million, or a million million ?

to Carl:

a billion is a thousand million in the US

in the UK a billion is (or used to be) a million million (a trillion in the US).

and i want to refine my February 12th prediction to 0830 GMT, Feb 12, 2005.

The most likely fact is that Apple didn't pass the 700M mark yet. Thus, the "over 600".

MW: icantstandit

"icantstandit when people just don't get something...are frazzled at the end of a busy day...and then decide to take it out on those who do get it."

icantstandit:

I'm just messing with your head. I do agree that many times the magic word thing is pretty lame, but every so often there are some good ones.



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By the way, the "MDN Magic Word" is what you were forced to type in order to get your post to...welll...post.

For example, I had to type in "instead" on a text field before I clicked on the "Submit" button in order for this post to be...well...posted. Every person gets a different magic word. So if I did a "MDN Word" with "instead" it might not mean anything to you since you did not get that same word when you posted.

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He's right that the MW [trouble] didn't fit the post. It's supposed to have at least some minor connection to be worth mentioning.

MDN magic word: "Showed"

MDN magic word: "inside"

See, using the MDN magic word, I can post even if I don't have anything to say! Isn't that what MDN is all about?

MDN magic word: "street"

MDN magic word "post"

sorry, I could not help my self with that one

I would buy ALL of my music from itunes IF I could have it at cd-quality and a complete digital-booklet containing the same artwork, liner notes, and lyrics that come with the cd-version. I know that few of us have the hard-drives to store music at the lossless capacity but it would be nice to be able to purchae it at the lossless-quality, burn that to a backup cd, then rip it back in a lesser format until hard-drive capacities catch up. Maybe most users of iTunes aren't as picky, but it seems to me that I might as well get the cd (even if it costs a few bucks more) and own it in the highest quality format with the complete booklet. That said, I gotta say I DO enjoy the experience of shopping for music on iTunes and downloading something new.

MDNMW: food.

I need some FOOD right now or...

...oh forget it.

Actually, I do have a question:

When will Apple sell more songs than McDonald's sold burgers?